The photo shows a white electric sedan parked on a gravel pull-out below fog-covered hills. It is an illustration, not a dealership or a specific deal.
This guide covers new cars. If you’re shopping used, read our year-end used-car guide instead; the pressures on used lots work differently. The figures below were checked November 4, 2026. The newest Kelley Blue Book price and incentive data available on that date covered September 2026; that report came out October 13, so October’s figures should follow around the middle of November.
Should you buy now or wait until 2027?
Your timeline and the car you want matter more than the date on the calendar.
| Your situation | Buy in Nov/Dec 2026? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| You need a car soon and the model you want has plenty of 2026s in stock | Yes | Leftover model-year stock is where year-end pressure shows up. A high days' supply for that brand helps you. |
| You want a model that sells quickly and dealers have few on the lot | No rush | Low-supply models rarely carry big discounts in any month. Shop by price, not by date. |
| The 2027 version has a redesign or a feature you care about | Compare both | Price the 2026 leftover against the 2027. A discount only makes sense if you're happy with the older version for as long as you'll keep it. |
| You're buying an EV and were counting on the federal tax credit | Recalculate first | The federal credit is gone for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. Check what the dealer and automaker are offering instead. |
| You plan to finance and your credit is still improving | Maybe wait | A better rate can save more than a December discount. Get preapproved before you decide. |
| Your current car is reliable and paid off | Only for a strong deal | You can walk away, which gives you the most leverage. |
What actually drives year-end discounts
Dealers and automakers advertise all sorts of reasons to buy before December 31. Only some of them change what you pay.
| Factor | Does it lower prices? | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Model-year changeover to 2027 | Yes, on the outgoing model | Whether the dealer still has 2026s of the trim you want, and whether the 2027 changed anything you care about. |
| Aged inventory | Yes | How long the specific car has been on the lot. Ask, or compare the build date on the door-jamb label. |
| Monthly, quarterly and annual sales targets | Sometimes | Manufacturers often pay dealers bonuses for hitting volume targets. Programs vary by brand and aren't published, so treat this as possible leverage near month-end, not a guarantee. |
| Brand-level oversupply | Yes | Days' supply for the brand (see below). A brand with months of stock has more reason to deal. |
| Holiday sales events (Black Friday, year-end) | Sometimes | The actual APR, lease or cash offer, its expiration date, and whether it beats the offer that was running the month before. |
| "December is always cheapest" | No, not by itself | December 2025 set the record average transaction price, which KBB attributes to a seasonal rise in luxury-vehicle sales. A high December average doesn't mean weaker deals. |
| Advertised "up to" discounts | Rarely as advertised | Which trims, which buyers (loyalty, conquest, military) and whether the offer requires the automaker's financing. |
Black Friday falls on November 27 this year, the day after Thanksgiving. As of November 4, we hadn’t found published 2026 Black Friday or year-end offer terms on automaker sites. Those offers tend to appear in the second half of November, so look up the actual terms on the brand’s own site before you go in.
The 2026 numbers behind the advice
Prices are near a record
Kelley Blue Book’s average transaction price for a new vehicle was $50,562 in September 2026, up 0.9% from August and 0.7% from a year earlier. That was $52 below the record of $50,614, set in December 2025. The average sticker price (MSRP) was $52,342.
Cox Automotive’s Erin Keating pointed out that “consumers don’t buy the industry average,” and that the overall average is being held down by mix, since more buyers are choosing cheaper vehicles. The national average says little about the car you’re shopping, so price your specific trim.
KBB’s October 20 outlook says shoppers may find discounts on remaining 2026 models as 2027s arrive, and that waiting for a better deal may not pay off. It also attributes December 2025’s record average price to a seasonal rise in luxury-vehicle sales. A higher December average isn’t evidence that deals got worse.
Incentives are smaller than last year
In September, incentives averaged $3,359, or 6.6% of the average transaction price. That was up a little from 6.5% in August but down from 7.3% a year earlier. In dollars, incentives fell 8.8% year over year.
On Cox Automotive’s third-quarter forecast call, the company said incentives were closer to 8% of transaction prices in December 2024, and closer to 10 or 11% in the pre-COVID years. With tariffs squeezing profitability, Cox said, more pricing discipline appears to be the new path forward, even if it means fewer sales. Year-end deals are still happening, but they’re smaller than the ones many buyers remember.
EV incentives followed the same pattern. They were 11% of the average EV transaction price in September, down from 14.2% a year earlier. The average EV sold for $55,879, 3% less than a year before.
Inventory is back up, and it varies by brand
New-vehicle inventory reached 2.80 million units at the end of September, up 4.5% from August and 1.9% below a year earlier. The industry had 82 days’ supply, compared with 75 in August and 87 a year earlier.
Brand averages are where it gets useful:
| Lower supply (less room to bargain) | Days' supply | Higher supply (more room to bargain) | Days' supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 35 | Jeep | 169 |
| Lexus | 41 | Ram | 152 |
| Honda | 48 | Dodge | 149 |
| Subaru | 59 | Buick | 124 |
| Vehicles at $30,000 or less | 63 | Vehicles above $80,000 | 111 |
Cox also listed GMC at 106 days and Ford at 101. A brand averaging more than five months of stock, as Jeep did, has different motives than one averaging about five weeks, as Toyota did. Cheaper vehicles also had tighter supply (63 days for $30,000 or less) than expensive ones (111 days above $80,000), so deep year-end discounts are more likely on higher-priced vehicles and high-supply brands than on budget models.
The 2027 changeover is running late
Model-year 2027 vehicles made up 22.4% of inventory at the end of September, up from 12.4% in August. A year earlier, the incoming model year was 38.3% of inventory. Cox said tariffs add friction as automakers localize supply chains, simplify powertrains and options, and adjust production, and that those changes take time and can slow the model-year transition. On its forecast call, Cox suggested manufacturers may be more cautious about production this year after supply swelled to about 3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025.
So more 2026s may still be on lots in December than usual, which helps leftover deals, and the 2027 you’d wait for may be hard to find early in the new year.
Financing can erase the discount
Edmunds data for the third quarter of 2026, reported by Fortune, put the average new-car APR at 7.0%, unchanged from the previous quarter and a year earlier. The average monthly payment hit a record $787. About 21.2% of buyers paid $1,000 or more per month, and 25.5% of loans ran 84 months or longer. The average loan carried $9,938 in total interest over its life.
Other measures run higher. On its forecast call, Cox put the average new-auto-loan rate at 9.93% in August, up from 9.24% a year earlier, and said September was tracking above 10%. Whichever number you watch, a $2,000 year-end discount can disappear into a higher rate or a longer term.
One tax change helps some financed buyers. The IRS says interest on a qualifying new-car loan can be deductible, up to $10,000 a year, whether or not you itemize. The vehicle must be new, have final assembly in the U.S., weigh under 14,000 pounds gross, and be for personal use. The loan must have originated after December 31, 2024, and be secured by a lien on the vehicle. Leases don’t qualify, and the deduction phases out above $100,000 of modified adjusted gross income ($200,000 for joint filers). Final regulations published in September 2026 apply the deduction to tax years 2025 through 2028 and set the $10,000 cap per return, not per vehicle. Check the assembly location on the window sticker if this matters to you.
Tariffs are still in the price
In February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled against tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, by a reported 6-3 vote, but the Section 232 auto tariffs stayed in place. KBB reported a 15% rate on cars from Europe, South Korea and Japan after the ruling.
A separate KBB analysis from March 30 compared 37 weeks of model-year 2025 and 2026 sales and found MSRPs up 10.4% but transaction prices up only 5.9%, so sticker increases weren’t fully passed through. Per-vehicle increases ranged from $5,000 to $8,900 on imports and $1,600 to $2,000 on U.S.-assembled vehicles. KBB also reported destination fees of $2,795 on most full-size GM and Ford trucks and SUVs. Our tariff explainer has more on how that shows up at the dealer.
EV buyers: the federal credit is gone
The IRS says the federal clean vehicle credits no longer apply to vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. A car delivered later still qualifies only if the buyer had a binding written contract and made a payment on or before that date. Anyone buying an EV this December will not get the federal credit.
Some states still offer rebates. New Jersey’s Charge Up program, for example, lists a $1,500 point-of-sale incentive, an additional $2,500 for income-qualifying buyers (a $4,000 total), and up to $250 toward a qualifying Level 2 home charger. The site posts a funding-status page, so check that the program is still open and funded before you count on it. If you’re adding a charger, our 2026 home charging guide covers the options.
Demand is holding up
Cox raised its 2026 sales forecast to 16.1 million on September 24, up from 15.8 million. Chief economist Jeremy Robb said demand “has proven remarkably durable heading into the fourth quarter.” J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast October sales of 1,327,100 vehicles at a 15.6 million annual pace, unchanged from a year earlier. The forecast put the hybrid share at 18.6%.
Steady demand is probably part of why automakers haven’t spent more on incentives, and it makes a broad price drop this December unlikely.
Year-end negotiation checklist
- Get preapproved first. Bring a rate from a bank or credit union so you can tell whether the dealer’s financing is actually better. Negotiate the APR and term along with the price.
- Check the brand’s days’ supply. Use the table above as a starting point. A high-supply brand gives you leverage.
- Ask for leftover 2026s by stock number. Ask how long the car has been on the lot, and compare the window sticker to the 2027 version.
- Read the real offer. Look up Black Friday or year-end deals on the automaker’s site and note the expiration date, eligible trims, and whether cash and special APR can be combined.
- Negotiate the out-the-door price in writing. Ask for every fee, add-on and tax itemized before you discuss monthly payments. A low payment on an 84-month loan isn’t a deal.
- Refuse add-ons you didn’t ask for. The FTC’s CARS Rule was vacated by the Fifth Circuit on January 27, 2025 and formally withdrawn on February 12, 2026, so its specific disclosure requirements don’t protect you. The FTC still has advice on spotting unwanted add-ons.
- Get quotes from more than one store. The same car can sell for very different prices at different dealers; our guide to why dealer prices differ explains why.
- Shop near month-end, not just year-end. If a dealer is close to a monthly target, the last few days of November may be as useful as the last days of December.
- Be ready to walk. If the numbers don’t work, another month’s offers may.
For more on leftover-model decisions, see buying a 2025 model late in the year, last December’s buy-now-or-wait guide and our look at leftover 2025s on lots in May 2026. The same logic applies to this year’s leftover 2026s.
Sources
- Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book, September 2026 average transaction price report
- Cox Automotive, September 2026 new-vehicle inventory report
- Cox Automotive, Q3 2026 sales forecast update transcript and forecast press release
- Kelley Blue Book, When will car prices drop? (October 20, 2026)
- Kelley Blue Book, Most car tariffs still in place after Supreme Court ruling and tariff costs analysis (March 30, 2026)
- Fortune, report on Edmunds Q3 2026 financing data
- CollisionWeek, J.D. Power/GlobalData October 2026 forecast
- IRS, Clean vehicle tax credits
- IRS, Car loan interest deduction (tax tip, November 3, 2026) and Internal Revenue Bulletin 2026-39 (T.D. 10054, September 21, 2026)
- Federal Register, withdrawal of the CARS Rule (91 FR 6507)
- FTC, consumer alert on dealer add-ons
- New Jersey Clean Energy Program, Charge Up New Jersey